It's been a rollercoaster of news for U.S. gamers this week, starting with the full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, complete with its impressive lineup of games. The excitement was short-lived, however, as the $450 price tag and $80 for Mario Kart Tour left many fans disappointed. The mood shifted again this morning when Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders, citing the need to assess the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.

We've previously discussed the reasons behind the high cost of the Nintendo Switch 2 and the potential impact of these new tariffs on the gaming industry. Now, the burning question on everyone's mind is: what will Nintendo do? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?

Typically, to address such uncertainties in the gaming world, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a consensus based on evidence and data. This week alone, I've reached out to them twice. However, this time, for the first time in my career, every analyst I spoke with was stumped. They offered various guesses about whether Nintendo would raise the price, but each response was heavily caveated, emphasizing the current chaos and unpredictability. This situation is unprecedented, and no one can accurately forecast what Nintendo, Trump, or anyone else might do in the near future.

With that significant caveat in mind, here's what the analysts I spoke to had to say:

Sky-High Switch

The panel of experts was divided. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially thought it was too late for Nintendo to raise prices after announcing them. However, the delay has changed his perspective. He believes Nintendo may have no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories.

"It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes, not only for the system itself but also games and accessories," Toto said. "I hope I am wrong, but if these sky-high tariffs are sustained, they leave Nintendo no choice. Would you be surprised now to see the Switch 2 hit $500 for the base model? I wouldn't."

Toto also questioned Nintendo's timing: "Why on earth did Nintendo not wait for the U.S. to fix their tariffs first and then decide on pricing during a Direct a few days later? This made no sense."

Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, echoed the sentiment of unpredictability but leaned towards an increase in game prices, including those from Nintendo. "Based on the conversations I'm having, the breadth and depth of the tariffs surprised everyone, not just consumers," he said.

Piscatella noted that Nintendo likely had some assumptions about the tariffs when setting the initial price, but the actual tariffs were much higher than anticipated. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its U.S. consumer pricing at this point. They have to."

He further explained that some regions have historically faced higher game prices due to various factors, and the U.S. could join this group because of the new tariffs. "The haphazard and chaotic nature of the tariffs and their announcement obviously has many scrambling to navigate the fallout."

Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will increase due to the tariffs, but he believes software will be less affected. "While physical versions might be subject to tariffs, the growing dominance and lower cost of digital distribution would likely limit any broader effect," he said.

Regarding hardware, Rosier added, "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins. In such cases, the burden could shift to consumers in the form of higher retail prices."

Holding the Line

On the other side of the debate, Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but believes Nintendo will try hard to avoid it. "I believe the volatility from the Trump tariffs was already considered in the Switch 2's $449.99 pricing," he said. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks."

Van Dreunen pointed out that Nintendo's historical launch prices, adjusted for inflation, suggest that the current price already accounts for potential economic challenges. "Nevertheless, the unpredictable nature of these tariff decisions—exemplified by the recent situation in Vietnam—injects a significant amount of uncertainty into the market. This could compel Nintendo to find ways to absorb or offset additional costs, especially when initial product margins are typically narrower. While I expect Nintendo will strive to maintain the $449.99 price point, the external economic pressures may eventually force a reassessment if the trade landscape deteriorates further."

Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees with van Dreunen, warning that a price increase could lead to consumer backlash. "The extent of the tariffs and its impact on Vietnamese exports are really bad news for Nintendo," he says. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price."

Harding-Rolls suggests that Nintendo might hold off on changing the price until 2026 at the earliest, hoping for a resolution in the meantime. "This delay in pre-orders is to give the company more time, and it will be hoping some sort of solution will be found over the next few weeks. This is a pretty fluid situation after all. Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now. If the pricing does change, it will impact the brand and the U.S. consumer’s view of the product at launch. I don’t think that will put off loyal fans, but it might put off broader consumers who will take a wait-and-see approach. That’s particularly important during its first holiday season."

Living in Unhinged Times

Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, aligns with the first camp, predicting higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He references his previous comments on Nintendo's strategy to offer cheaper digital editions of Switch 2 games in certain markets. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital, as I mentioned my comments to IGN about Mario Kart World’s pricing. Nintendo might have wanted to do something similar in the U.S., but the tariff situation is so chaotic that Nintendo was in 'wait and see' mode—and decided to hedge its bets to see if it needed to offset the tariffs."

Elliott paints a grim picture of the broader impact of these tariffs on the gaming industry, in line with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes the tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation," with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "Some manufacturers—Nintendo included—have been shifting their manufacturing to non-tariff-impacted markets," Elliott says. "And even if companies can afford to switch up (no pun intended!) their supply chains, who knows which markets will get tariffs next—as recent news supports. Companies cannot just lift up their whole supply chain and move everything to the U.S. It’s just not logistically possible. Under current law (I can’t believe I have to qualify this, but here we are), Trump would not be in power anymore by the time such a move would be completed—for Nintendo and other manufacturers. We are living in...there’s no other word for it...unhinged times driven by an unhinged man (and other forces)."

Elliott also criticizes the tariffs for their negative impact on U.S. consumers during a cost-of-living crisis. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the U.S. but are positive for the U.S. administration’s populist façade. Policies that lead to higher prices for everyday people amid a cost-of-living crisis are deplorable. They're bad for gamers and the games business. I won’t comment on the real reason for the U.S. tariffs, but 'a much stronger, much richer nation' is not it."

He concludes by emphasizing the economic harm caused by tariffs, stating that they contradict the core principles of international trade theory. "Comparative advantage is a core principle of international trade theory. Basically, consumption and economic well-being are stronger when countries focus on producing goods they can efficiently produce (at the lowest cost compared to other goods) – and trade for goods they are less efficient at producing. The trade war flies in the face of these core economic principles."

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